The purpose of this thesis is to examine why a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority that would result in an independent Palestinian state appears increasingly unlikely. The thesis explores the history of the peace process with particular emphasis on the role played by the United States in attempting to fashion an agreement that guaranteed an independent Palestinian state. The results of the thesis suggest a historical path dependency and the power of spoilers in the peace process. Also important has been the nature of U.S. support for Israel, the lack of a truly representative Palestinian body, and the increased influence of more hard-line political parties within Israel and Palestine in recent decades. All these factors have shaped the process and made the prospect of an independent Palestinian state increasingly unlikely. The conclusions point to the need for a change in the status quo and the likelihood of U.S. involvement in whatever negotiations take place in the future. Recommendations for the path ahead include a range of potential solutions to the issues surrounding the problem and the possible U.S. role.

Subjects: U.S. policy; Israel; Palestine; peace process; Oslo Accords; qualitative military edge; Middle East; strategic interests; U.S. strategy; Hamas; Palestinian Liberation Organization; Likud; Camp David; Arafat; Annapolis; terrorism; refugees; regional stability